I didn’t believe Barack Obama for one second (and have the proof of his disingenuity) when he told the delegates to the annual conference of the American Israel Political Affairs Committee that “Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided.”

Of course, Obama had to clarify his poorly crafted remarks (final status issues should be left for the parties), after which I mocked some of

the Jewish leaders involved…[that] were trying to pretend that Obama was promising an undivided Jerusalem to Israel and nothing to the Palestinians. Today they are trying to pretend that they are shocked and amazed to discover that this was not Obama’s intention.”

I didn’t believe Obama then.  And I don’t believe Rudy Giuliani now.

Giuliani, in his speech yesterday (all in all, by the way, a good speech), criticized Obama for allegedly changing his mind regarding Jerusalem. That’s a fair criticism: The Jerusalem gaffe wasn’t Obama’s most eloquent moment. But Giuliani didn’t just criticize Obama: 

When speaking to a pro-Israeli group, Obama favored an undivided Jerusalem, like I favor and John McCain favors it. Well he favored an undivided Jerusalem, don’t get excited – until one day later when he changed his mind. 

And here’s where I don’t believe Giuliani: I don’t think he can speak for McCain on this issue, and I also do not think that McCain’s position is all that different from Obama’s. Giuliani and McCain aren’t identical twins, and Jerusalem might be one of the cases in which the difference between the more hawkish ex-mayor and the more realist Senator will be of some significance. Jerusalem is one of the most complicated issues in any round of negotiations between Israel ands the Arabs–and to assume that McCain has already decided to support an “undivided Jerusalem” in the broader sense (namely, all for Israel, nothing for the Palestinians) has, as far as I can tell, no basis.

Remember: not even Bush was supportive enough of Israel’s official position to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Also remember that two of the last three Israeli Prime Ministers (Barak and Olmert) were willing to give away parts of Jerusalem to the Palestinians. When the time comes to make a decision on Jerusalem, no American President will demand an undivided Jerusalem more strongly than Israel has shown itself inclined to. Not even Bush-and definitely not McCain, who has a realist side to him that takes over from time to time.

So, for those opposing the division of Jerusalem I’d say this: your most serious problem will not be in Washington. It is, first and foremost in-well-Jerusalem.