Here’s Israel’s new political battleground, shaped by the Labor primaries last week and Likud’s primaries yesterday.

— Labor will attack the Likud Party by saying it is “radical.” It will attack Kadima for having no ideological depth. Labor has no real chance of gaining voters from the Likud Party, and in order to be seen again as the “leader” of center-left voters, it has to attack Netanyahu and Likud. It also has to attack Kadima, because that’s where voters can be found.

— Kadima will attack Labor by claiming that Livni is the only alternative to Netanyahu. It will attack Netanyahu and the Likud by portraying them as “extreme.” Kadima has to convince people that moving to Labor will hurt, rather than help, in preventing Netanyahu from becoming Prime Minister. It will attack Likud in the hope that Netanyahu’s new list, a mixed bag of more centrist “moderates” and more hawkish “extremists,” will convince people to rethink their support for a party whose members are “loonies.”

— Likud will attack Kadima by saying it is corrupt and tying it to the policies and statements of Prime Minister Olmert. It will hardly bother attacking Labor. Kadima is the only political threat Likud sees. Voters leaving Likud will probably go to Kadima, preferring its “moderate” tone. But while a stronger Kadima might be in a position to form a coalition without Likud, a stronger Labor can be a partner for future coalition.

The big question is how many Israelis out there are not worried about Netanyahu so much as the the minor-league extremists on his list. My guess is that in the coming polls, the Likud Party will suffer some losses, but that the lists are not as important as the Prime Ministerial candidates.