In the last couple of days, national polls have shown that the tide has shifted–McCain is slipping and Obama is gaining. But as election day is only a month and a half away, the more critical polls are those dealing with battleground states, and two new polls show that the national trend makes it difficult for McCain to get the electoral votes he will need come election day.

The first poll is the Big Ten Battleground Poll, conducted by the authoritative Charles Franklin. It covers Rust Belt and Midwestern states: Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. Except for Obama’s home state of Illinois, the states covered all point to a tight race:

The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state – Indiana – where he leads by 4 percentage points.

Not so bad for McCain. But the second poll–Allstate and National Journal–is less favorable. It confirms that McCain has a slight lead in Ohio, but also covers four other battleground states that Bush carried in 2004: Colorado (1 point Obama lead), Florida (tie), New Mexico (+7 for Obama!), Virginia (+7 for McCain). Obama, according to this poll, can hope to carry as many as four of the five Bush won in 2004:

Similar dynamics are shaping the races in each of the five Bush-won states surveyed. From one direction, Obama is benefiting from a desire for change grounded in widespread disenchantment with Bush. Although the president carried each of these states in 2004 and all except New Mexico in 2000, today a substantial majority of voters in all five disapprove of his performance in office. (About three-fifths of the voters in four of these states are unhappy with the job Bush is doing. In the fifth, Virginia, 56 percent disapprove.) Similarly, the survey found that most voters in all five states lean toward policy positions on energy, the economy, and international affairs predominantly associated with Democrats.

From the other direction, in each state except New Mexico, McCain leads by a double-digit margin when voters are asked which candidate is more prepared to lead the country.

One thing is for sure: November 4th is going to be a very long day.