Jackson Diehl’s article in today’s Washington Post is well worth quoting. When the “world” was celebrating the election of Obama, Diehl writes, joining the chorus were not just fun-loving Europeans and proud Kenyans. Also present were Middle East autocrats eagerly waiting for the end of an era: Bush’s let’s-democratize-the-region-era.

One of these leaders is Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak:

With Bush now on his way out, Mubarak is losing his remaining inhibitions. Two days after Obama’s election, Nour’s wife [Ayman Nour is the leader of the liberal opposition party] Gameela Ismail, and other party leaders held a meeting. A party faction sponsored by the regime marched on the building in which they had gathered and — as photographs posted on the Internet clearly show — used aerosol cans to set fire to it. Police, who stood by while the attack took place, later tried to blame Ismail and the other party leaders, who were nearly trapped by the blaze. Now these leaders may face criminal charges.

A frequently forgotten topic, but a very important one, is the question of succession in Egypt. Mubarak, as Diehl writes, is quite old:

Eighty-year-old Mubarak, who has not visited the United States since 2003 because of resentment toward Bush, is convinced that the next president won’t pester him about human rights, reports the Egyptian press. After all, in his message to the world on election night, Obama said: “To those who seek peace and security, we support you.” Peace and security, in exchange for autocracy, is the bargain Mubarak has always offered Washington.

Will Obama neglect human rights in exchange for stability? The temptation is there. But I’m not sure if this is where his instincts are going to lead him. Yes, gambling on Egyptian democracy will not come without risk. But since Mubarak is likely to leave the president’s office during the Obama years, this event will offer Obama “a historic opportunity — which will not recur — to restore U.S. credibility in the eyes of the Arab citizenry,” as Abdel Baky of Carnegie (quoted by Diehl) has argued.

A frightening scenario for some, because of the risks inherent to such a decision (remember Hamas winning in the Palestinian election?) And frightening for others because it means that Obama will be following–at least to some extent–in the foot steps of one George W. Bush.