Whatever one might think about the Prime Minister, this should not be a happy moment. The Israeli police today announced that they will recommend indicting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert:

The police are set to give their recommendations to the State Attorney’s Office. Attorney-General Menahem Mazuz and State-Attorney Moshe Lador will review the case material before making a decision on whether to charge the prime minister.

Mazuz was involved in the drafting of the Police’s announcement, so the chances for him to reverse this decision are quite slim. He might decide to reject parts of the recommended indictment–the most important issue is whether Olmert will be indicted not just for money laundering and fraud, but also for bribery.

The criminal case against Olmert will be debated in the years to come, and with it the more important question of whether such charges should lead to what constitutes a change of government. Some politicians complain that the police are looking to make a name for themselves by investigating Israeli leaders with unjustified zealotry. All three Prime Ministers preceding Olmert–Netanyahu, Barak, Sharon–were investigated. But Olmert will be the first one to pay such a heavy price.

The Israeli public will be happy to see him go–but not necessarily because of these charges: Olmert lost the support of the people after the Lebanon war, and could never recover it. The investigations dealing with the complicated relations he had with funders, friends, and the tax code do not ignite the same level of emotional reaction.

Olmert thought it was important to clarify tonight that the police are not the ones making decisions related to indictments–they can only make recommendations. Technically, he is right, but the truth of the matter is that Olmert is practically gone. Mahmoud Abbas seems to understand that. Syrian President Assad seems to understand that.

Israelis understand this as well, of course. But when Olmert is gone, Israel’s troubles will not go away with him. No “realignment” in the West Bank, no “victory” in Lebanon, no “framework” for peace. Olmert was the luckiest of all politicians before coming to power (nobody expected him to be Sharon’s successor)–but his luck started to run out as soon as he was elevated to the PM’s office. Many Israelis grew to despise Olmert, almost hate him. In time, they’ll realize that it was overreaction. Olmert is not as black as he’s painted–and the alternatives are not as appealing as they now pretend them to be.