In 2004 there were signs that Bush could have carried the Garden State, but it eventually went blue, as usual. So this bit of news should not be overestimated: John McCain seems as if he is closing the New Jersey gap:

In this latest survey, white voters back Sen. McCain 56 – 37 percent, up from 50 – 42 percent August 13. Black voters support the Democrat 93 – 7 percent, compared to 94 – 1 percent. Men back McCain 53 – 40 percent, reversing a 48 – 45 percent Obama lead, while women stay with Obama 54 – 38 percent, compared to 53 – 38 percent. But white women back McCain 50 – 42 percent, compared to 46 – 44 percent for Obama Aug. 13. Independent voters shift from 45 – 42 percent for Obama to 47 – 43 percent for McCain.

Bottom line? “McCain has narrowed a 10-point gap and now trails Democratic Sen. Barack Obama 48 – 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters”

Winning New Jersey would not offset a possible McCain loss of Virginia, but McCain’s improved numbers there will force Obama to spend more money (not a problem) and time (always a problem) in New Jersey.