It’s possible that VP nominee Joe Biden is really popular in Pennsylvania. That’s exactly what we’ve been told in the days since he was selected as Barack Obama’s running mate:
[E]lectorally, Biden could help lock down Pennsylvania, as well as connect better than Obama has in blue-collar Michigan and the “U” of Ohio (Toledo to Youngstown).
The Pittsburgh-Tribune-Review, for example, ran a story about Biden’s roots in Scranton, PA:
The Delaware senator will help Obama in Philadelphia and its vote-rich suburbs, where he’s a well-known figure as a close neighbor who has appeared regularly in the Philadelphia media market.
David Broder of the Washington Post echoed this sentiment (the Scranton boy) this morning:
Biden brings a blue-collar sensibility that has been lacking in Obama’s campaign, reflecting his background in Scranton, Pa., and Wilmington, Del.
Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor, Ed Rendell, has predicted that choosing Biden will help Obama in his State:
“The governor thinks it’s a great pick and that it will help Obama in Pennsylvania,” his spokesman Chuck Ardo told PolitickerPA.com. Rendell said at a press conference Tuesday that Biden has “the most experience in foreign affairs, the most experience in terrorism and national security.” He also said southeast Pennsylvania is very familiar with the senator from Delaware because his political ads have run in the Philadelphia media market for years. “We’ve been watching Joe’s ads for 31 years,” he said.
Now, with all these experts saying essentially the same thing, one has to treat any counterarguments with humility. They all know Pennsylvania much better than I do. However, in all these stories I read, not one proof was presented or one piece of data adduced to support the Biden-is-really-a-Pennsylvanian-for-all-practical-political-purposes school of thought.
So, I’ve decided to check some available data, namely the Quinnipiac University polls done in the state when Biden was still a candidate for the presidency. Did he have a chance in this presumed favorable territory? Was he well liked in Pennsylvania? Did he fare better in PA than in other states?
Take a look! Here’s a poll of Pennsylvania voters from February of 2007. Biden got 5 percent support for the Democratic candidacy and approval ratings of 27 percent (less than all other surveyed candidates). 30 percent were disapproving. 40 percent hadn’t “heard enough” (after thirty-six years of Senate service!) of this fellow Pennsylvanian. These are not very impressive numbers. But Biden did even worse elsewhere: in Connecticut (2 percent support, 18 percent favorability), New York (1 percent support, 19 percent favorability), Florida (2 percent support, 20 percent favorability).
In a poll conducted in three “swing states”–Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida–in June of 2007, one can clearly see the comparative advantage Biden has in PA. He got 2 percent in Florida, 1 percent in Ohio and 5 percent in PA. But in August, this slim advantage disappeared: Biden got 2 percent in PA, exactly like Florida and less than the 3 percent in Ohio.
In September and October, Biden was still running–but his support was very low. One percent in Florida, 3 percent in Connecticut, 3 percent in New York, and in Pennsylvania–his state of supposed strength–exactly the same: 3 percent. And between February and November, Biden failed to gain any traction in PA, and lost almost half of his already meager support there. True, he was busy in Iowa, but so were the other candidates. Later, he quit the race, but never endorsed Obama or Clinton. Thus, his possible impact on the contentious Pennsylvania primary was never empirically tested.
So what am I trying to say here? That Biden will not help Obama in PA? I can’t say that, especially not when so many experts say the opposite. All I’m really saying is this: tell us how you know that Biden’s selection means Obama can take PA.
