Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was hoping to end his term in office with some sense of achievement. He launched a popular and efficient operation in Gaza, and even hoped to bring home the abducted soldier Gilad Shalit. But Shalit is still a bargaining chip in the negotiations between Israel, Egypt and Hamas and the operation in Gaza has failed to achieve the desired deterrence:

Ten rockets from the Gaza Strip struck Israel yesterday. Six targeted Gaza-area communities, two hit Ashkelon, one landed in the Eshkol district and one near Sdot Negev area, the Israel Defense Forces said. There were no casualties or property damage, with the exception of one rocket that struck an empty schoolyard in Ashkelon. The school was severely damaged, with shrapnel hitting some of the classrooms – including areas the Defense Ministry had defined as safe, Ashkelon municipal sources said.

Moreover, the recent rockets have done greater damage than their predecessors:  “Experts say the two Grad rockets that landed in Ashkelon Saturday morning were new and improved models, capable of greater destruction than those usually fired from Gaza.”

Post-election confusion has prevented the Israeli government from making decisions. The Olmert-Livni-Barak troika is on the way out, and of different minds on the necessary next step. (Barak wants a negotiated cease-fire; Olmert and Livni aren’t sure). While Israel is waiting for the political process to reach its successful conclusion, the perception of the Gaza operation as a successful and necessary enterprise diminishes. If may have failed to deliver a “bearable” existence to Israelis in the south, and failed to achieve deterrence.

Fighting Hamas is no less urgent than it was two months ago. But launching another operation with an Israeli consensus could prove difficult. And the truth is: nobody knows how complicated it will become by the time a new coalition is formed. Netanyahu has more than 30 days to present his new government. That translates into a lot of Palestinian rockets.