Three weeks ago, Congressional Democrats passed a reauthorization of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), which they knew the President would veto. It would have increased the program’s budget by $35 billion, eliminated a requirement that states cover the neediest eligible children before covering middle-class ones, and increased the tax on tobacco—which amounts to a tax on the poorest Americans—to give slightly more affluent Americans health care.
President Bush had proposed a more modest reauthorization that would still increase the program by about 20 percent (or $5 billion, rather than $35 billion), and would insist the funds first went to the poorest of those eligible, to keep the program from becoming a tool to prod families off of private insurance and onto government-funded health care.
Sure enough, Bush vetoed the Democratic proposal, and his veto was sustained in the House. Now, “sensing a political advantage” (as the New York Times puts it), the Democrats are rushing through another version of the bill, which they hope will peel off enough Republicans to pass. This version still suffers from basically all of the flaws that made it unacceptable to Bush last time, though some are hidden behind flimsy gimmicks.
The bill, for instance, seems on its face to cap eligibility at families that make three times the poverty rate (or about $62,000), but leaves open a loophole for states to disregard significant portions of a family’s income. It claims, also, to require states to submit plans for preventing the “crowd-out” effect, by which added federal dollars cause families to drop private insurance in favor of SCHIP coverage. But it includes no sanctions against states that fail to follow through on such plans.
Essentially, the Democrats are pushing through the same bill they did last time, and hoping for a different result. Why would they expect such a difference? For one thing, ten of the Republicans who voted to sustain the President’s veto last time are now away from Washington—because they represent southern California districts contending with wildfires. That cuts deeply into the Republicans’ margin, since Bush’s veto was sustained by only thirteen votes last time. The Democrats are insisting on a quick vote—today, in fact—before those members return. They hope, too, that the appearance of a compromise will move enough of the remaining opponents of their bill to choose to avoid the risk of being branded an enemy of children’s health care.
This gambit almost certainly will fail. The bill will pass, to be sure, and will be vetoed again. But it looks just about certain still to fail to garner the votes necessary to override the veto (which, in any case, won’t come until both houses have passed the bill and the president has vetoed it, likely allowing the absent Republicans to return). It will be closer than last time. But even with these deceptive games, and even with the cynical use of the California fires for crass political advantage, the Democrats still seem unlikely to be able to avoid a genuine compromise with Bush that will keep this important program going, while not turning it into a first step toward federalized health care.
