This week we should be talking about how the latest bad economic news and Hillary Clinton’s brazen lying about what FBI Director James Comey said stepped on the Democrat’s post-convention bump. But thanks to Donald Trump’s obsessive need to trash anyone who opposes him, the lead story remains the GOP candidate’s feud with the Khan family. Nothing, not even golden opportunities to highlight the shortcomings of the administration for which Clinton wants a third term, is enough to distract Trump from his personal narrative of grievance. Trump added to that on Monday declaring he believed the general election might be “rigged.”
Why would a candidate that is still within striking distance of the White House be speaking this way? Is it a reflection of his intense cynicism or a genuine fear that the election might not be going as well as he hoped?
The context for the comment was his attempt to lampoon the Democratic establishment for its successful effort to stop the Bernie Sanders insurgency. Trump is right when he notes that the Democratic National Committee did all in its power to assist Clinton but the talk of that primary campaign being rigged in any meaningful sense is nonsense. Clinton may be deeply corrupt but, in the end, she won her nomination the same way Trump won his: with the support of primary voters. The majority of Democrats were simply not willing to give control of their party to a 74-year-old socialist.
But for Trump, the notion that America has lost its way and that he alone can rescue it is not merely a function of his massive ego. In order to fire up his supporters, he must constantly reinforce their sense of outrage. The dark view of America that was the primary theme of his acceptance speech was not an arbitrary choice. It is a reflection of a dismal view of the state of the nation that helps bind angry and dissatisfied Americans even more closely to him. For Trump’s followers, this notion is important not just because they fear the odds are stacked against him but because they have come to see everything about 2016 America as ruined and corrupt.
But let’s not ignore the fact that for all of his ignorance and folly, Trump isn’t stupid. He knows the electoral math as well as anybody. Moreover, perhaps he senses that the formula he used to win the primaries may not be working as well in the early stages of the general election. Trump’s inability to control or limit the backlash against his comments about the Khans and Clinton’s rebound in the polls may be reminding him that he is still the heavy underdog and his path to 270 Electoral College votes remains slender.
That’s why we must also understand that the talk of the system being “rigged” against him is the beginning of the formation of another narrative: an excuse for losing an election that the Republicans ought to win given the weakness of the Democratic candidate.
Indeed, if Trump is truly the people’s champion and their only savior, what other explanation can there be for the possibility that he will lose other than fraud? As with all of his other arguments about economics and foreign policy, facts won’t matter when the analysis of the 2016 election is undertaken. If Trump loses there will have to be an explanation other than the obvious one about his manifest unfitness for office and that more Americans are repelled by his personality and tactics than those who adore him and his willingness to offend with impunity.
Since it is impossible to imagine Trump graciously admitting defeat or having the character to own up to his shortcomings, there will have to be scapegoats and plenty of them. All those Republican office-holders that held their noses and endorsed him and then refused to disavow those endorsements even as he sank their party in a morass of prejudice will be blamed for their lack of enthusiasm. The tiny band of “Never Trump” conservatives will be seen as the faction that stabbed the populist hero in the back. Above all, the same nefarious forces that he has been running against—a GOP establishment that cravenly bowed to him and a news media that promoted him relentlessly—will be held responsible for the consequences of his mistakes.
But Trump’s need for a rigged election goes beyond providing an excuse for his failure. It will also supply a rallying cry for the continuation of his celebrity-driven movement. Though many of those tame GOP leaders who endorsed him are hoping that after November, Trump and Trumpism will disappear, they are almost certainly going to be disappointed. The stab in the back theory for Trump’s possible defeat will also serve as the justification for the continuation of the effort to transform a conservative party into a Peronist-style populist blood and soil faction that will continue to center around the billionaire’s cult of personality.
Preparing Trump’s fans for defeat isn’t just a way for them to comprehend inevitable failure. It could provide him with the leverage he needs to continue to dominate a GOP if wiser heads aren’t able to start fighting back against his cynical hijacking of the party of Lincoln and Reagan.